Vanguard
META: fires only when Elo and WR10 strongly agree (>60% same side).
All-time accuracy
61.5%
32 / 52 settled
Last 50
60.0%
sliding window
Last 10
40.0%
most recent
Brier score
0.266
lower = better (0.25 = coin flip)
Log-loss
0.729
lower = better
Simulated bankroll
If you'd staked $10 on every prediction at fair odds (1/probability, no bookie vig), your P&L would be $-11.59 across 70 bets. ROI = -1.66%.
Calibration by confidence
When the model says 80%, is it actually right 80% of the time? Well-calibrated models have accuracy that matches confidence range.
| Confidence range | Picks | Accuracy | Calibration |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50–60% | 0 | — | |
| 60–70% | 37 | 64.9% (24/37) | |
| 70–80% | 15 | 53.3% (8/15) | |
| 80–90% | 0 | — | |
| 90–101% | 0 | — |
Recent picks (53)
| When | Match | Pick | Outcome | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15 | IW vs TY | TY 71% | IW | ✗ miss |
| Aug 15 | TY vs IW | TY 69% | IW | ✗ miss |
| Aug 15 | Liquid vs IW | Liquid 65% | Liquid | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 15 | VSN vs TSpirit | VSN 60% | VSN | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 15 | Liquid vs IW | Liquid 68% | IW | ✗ miss |
| Aug 15 | VSN vs TSpirit | VSN 60% | VSN | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 15 | Liquid vs IW | Liquid 64% | Liquid | ✗ miss |
| Aug 15 | TY vs Resilience | TY 67% | TY | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 15 | Resilience vs TY | TY 67% | Resilience | ✗ miss |
| Aug 14 | TY vs Aurora | TY 66% | Aurora | ✗ miss |
| Aug 14 | Aurora vs TY | TY 65% | TY | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 14 | Aurora vs TY | TY 63% | TY | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 14 | TY vs Aurora | TY 66% | TY | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 14 | Aurora vs TY | TY 63% | Aurora | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 14 | TY vs Liquid | TY 64% | TY | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 14 | TY vs Liquid | TY 64% | TY | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 13 | BB vs IW | BB 70% | BB | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 13 | BB vs IW | BB 77% | IW | ✗ miss |
| Aug 13 | GL vs Aurora | Aurora 67% | Aurora | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 13 | BB vs IW | BB 74% | BB | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 13 | TSpirit vs XG | TSpirit 67% | TSpirit | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 13 | TY vs HU | TY 67% | TY | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 13 | TY vs HU | TY 65% | TY | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 13 | Aurora vs GL | Aurora 67% | Aurora | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 13 | TSpirit vs XG | TSpirit 67% | TSpirit | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 13 | XG vs TSpirit | TSpirit 67% | TSpirit | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 13 | NGX vs IW | NGX 69% | IW | ✗ miss |
| Aug 12 | NAVI vs LevelUP | NAVI 74% | NAVI | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 05 | FLCN vs Liquid | FLCN 64% | Liquid | ✗ miss |
| Aug 05 | YB vs PT | PT 68% | PT | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 04 | BB vs OG | BB 65% | OG | ✗ miss |
| Aug 01 | FLCN vs OG | FLCN 64% | OG | ✗ miss |
| Aug 01 | BB vs GL | BB 68% | BB | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 01 | 1w vs OG | 1w 69% | OG | ✗ miss |
| Aug 01 | BB vs MOUZ | BB 76% | BB | ✓ HIT |
| Jul 31 | XG vs LGD | LGD 70% | XG | ✗ miss |
| Jul 31 | XG vs LGD | LGD 76% | XG | ✗ miss |
| Jul 31 | BB vs MOUZ | BB 75% | BB | ✓ HIT |
| Jul 30 | FLCN vs OG | FLCN 62% | pending | — |
| Jul 30 | NGX vs VG | NGX 74% | VG | ✗ miss |
| Jul 30 | LGD vs MOUZ | LGD 70% | MOUZ | ✗ miss |
| Jul 30 | LGD vs MOUZ | LGD 75% | LGD | ✗ miss |
| Jul 11 | XG vs FLCN | FLCN 71% | FLCN | ✓ HIT |
| Jul 10 | OG vs 1w | 1w 73% | 1w | ✓ HIT |
| Jun 27 | Resilience vs YB | Resilience 71% | Resilience | ✓ HIT |
| Jun 27 | LGD vs PT | LGD 65% | LGD | ✓ HIT |
| Jun 27 | LGD vs PT | LGD 65% | LGD | ✓ HIT |
| Jun 27 | LGD vs PT | LGD 65% | LGD | ✓ HIT |
| Jun 27 | NMSS vs AMG | NMSS 64% | AMG | ✗ miss |
| Jun 27 | NMSS vs AMG | NMSS 64% | AMG | ✗ miss |
| Jun 27 | NMSS vs AMG | NMSS 64% | AMG | ✗ miss |
| Jun 27 | LGD vs PT | LGD 65% | LGD | ✓ HIT |
| Jun 27 | LGD vs PT | LGD 65% | LGD | ✓ HIT |