Tier Elo
Elo computed only from matches against top-30 teams.
All-time accuracy
54.8%
125 / 228 settled
Last 50
54.0%
sliding window
Last 10
80.0%
most recent
Brier score
0.272
lower = better (0.25 = coin flip)
Log-loss
0.746
lower = better
Simulated bankroll
If you'd staked $10 on every prediction at fair odds (1/probability, no bookie vig), your P&L would be $-282.75 across 292 bets. ROI = -9.68%.
Calibration by confidence
When the model says 80%, is it actually right 80% of the time? Well-calibrated models have accuracy that matches confidence range.
| Confidence range | Picks | Accuracy | Calibration |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50–60% | 72 | 56.9% (41/72) | |
| 60–70% | 97 | 52.6% (51/97) | |
| 70–80% | 44 | 50.0% (22/44) | |
| 80–90% | 15 | 73.3% (11/15) | |
| 90–101% | 0 | — |
Upcoming picks
| When | Match | This model picks | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| IW vs TSpirit | TSpirit 61% | 1.00 | |
| VSN vs BB | VSN 51% | 0.73 | |
| Liquid vs TY | TY 56% | 1.00 | |
| NGX vs FLCN | NGX 50% | 1.00 | |
| Resilience vs GL | Resilience 90% | 0.80 | |
| OG vs XG | OG 50% | 1.00 | |
| Resilience vs GL | Resilience 90% | 0.80 | |
| OG vs XG | OG 50% | 1.00 |
Recent picks (60)
| When | Match | Pick | Outcome | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 17 | IW vs TSpirit | TSpirit 61% | pending | — |
| Aug 17 | VSN vs BB | VSN 51% | pending | — |
| Aug 17 | Liquid vs TY | TY 56% | pending | — |
| Aug 17 | NGX vs FLCN | NGX 50% | pending | — |
| Aug 17 | Resilience vs GL | Resilience 90% | pending | — |
| Aug 17 | OG vs XG | OG 50% | pending | — |
| Aug 17 | Resilience vs GL | Resilience 90% | pending | — |
| Aug 17 | OG vs XG | OG 50% | pending | — |
| Aug 16 | LGD vs TY | TY 60% | TY | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 16 | LGD vs TY | TY 59% | TY | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 16 | TY vs LGD | TY 59% | TY | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 16 | TSpirit vs Resilience | Resilience 52% | TSpirit | ✗ miss |
| Aug 16 | IW vs GL | IW 85% | IW | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 16 | LGD vs TY | TY 59% | LGD | ✗ miss |
| Aug 16 | GL vs IW | IW 86% | IW | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 16 | Resilience vs TSpirit | TSpirit 55% | TSpirit | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 16 | FLCN vs VG | FLCN 67% | FLCN | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 16 | Aurora vs BB | BB 54% | BB | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 16 | GL vs IW | IW 85% | IW | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 16 | Resilience vs TSpirit | TSpirit 65% | Resilience | ✗ miss |
| Aug 16 | Aurora vs BB | BB 51% | BB | coin-flip |
| Aug 16 | TSpirit vs Resilience | TSpirit 55% | TSpirit | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 16 | FLCN vs VG | FLCN 67% | FLCN | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 16 | BB vs Aurora | Aurora 50% | BB | coin-flip |
| Aug 16 | VG vs FLCN | FLCN 67% | FLCN | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 15 | TY vs IW | TY 65% | IW | ✗ miss |
| Aug 15 | Aurora vs Liquid | Aurora 51% | Liquid | coin-flip |
| Aug 15 | NGX vs TSpirit | TSpirit 51% | NGX | coin-flip |
| Aug 15 | NGX vs TSpirit | TSpirit 53% | NGX | ✗ miss |
| Aug 15 | Resilience vs GL | Resilience 91% | pending | — |
| Aug 15 | OG vs XG | OG 50% | pending | — |
| Aug 15 | FLCN vs BB | FLCN 51% | FLCN | coin-flip |
| Aug 15 | NGX vs TSpirit | TSpirit 53% | NGX | ✗ miss |
| Aug 15 | Liquid vs Aurora | Aurora 51% | Aurora | coin-flip |
| Aug 15 | IW vs TY | TY 68% | IW | ✗ miss |
| Aug 15 | Liquid vs Aurora | Aurora 50% | Aurora | coin-flip |
| Aug 15 | FLCN vs BB | FLCN 52% | BB | coin-flip |
| Aug 15 | Aurora vs Liquid | Aurora 50% | Aurora | coin-flip |
| Aug 15 | TY vs IW | TY 68% | IW | ✗ miss |
| Aug 15 | BB vs FLCN | BB 55% | FLCN | ✗ miss |
| Aug 15 | FLCN vs BB | FLCN 51% | FLCN | coin-flip |
| Aug 15 | LGD vs VG | LGD 65% | LGD | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 15 | XG vs Resilience | Resilience 61% | Resilience | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 15 | OG vs GL | OG 77% | GL | ✗ miss |
| Aug 15 | Resilience vs XG | Resilience 73% | Resilience | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 15 | VG vs LGD | LGD 65% | LGD | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 15 | GL vs OG | OG 77% | GL | ✗ miss |
| Aug 15 | Resilience vs XG | Resilience 60% | Resilience | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 15 | Liquid vs IW | Liquid 61% | Liquid | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 15 | Aurora vs BB | BB 54% | Aurora | ✗ miss |
| Aug 15 | VSN vs TSpirit | VSN 51% | VSN | coin-flip |
| Aug 15 | BB vs Aurora | BB 62% | Aurora | ✗ miss |
| Aug 15 | BB vs Aurora | BB 65% | Aurora | ✗ miss |
| Aug 15 | TSpirit vs VSN | VSN 51% | VSN | coin-flip |
| Aug 15 | BB vs Aurora | BB 56% | Aurora | ✗ miss |
| Aug 15 | Liquid vs IW | Liquid 57% | IW | ✗ miss |
| Aug 15 | VG vs NGX | NGX 67% | NGX | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 15 | FLCN vs GL | FLCN 87% | FLCN | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 15 | LGD vs XG | LGD 64% | LGD | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 15 | HU vs OG | HU 57% | OG | ✗ miss |