Patch-Aware
Elo with patch-boundary decay — stale form loses weight after Valve patches.
All-time accuracy
57.8%
160 / 277 settled
Last 50
50.0%
sliding window
Last 10
60.0%
most recent
Brier score
0.242
lower = better (0.25 = coin flip)
Log-loss
0.676
lower = better
Simulated bankroll
If you'd staked $10 on every prediction at fair odds (1/probability, no bookie vig), your P&L would be +$21.96 across 401 bets. ROI = +0.55%.
Calibration by confidence
When the model says 80%, is it actually right 80% of the time? Well-calibrated models have accuracy that matches confidence range.
| Confidence range | Picks | Accuracy | Calibration |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50–60% | 160 | 49.4% (79/160) | |
| 60–70% | 95 | 70.5% (67/95) | |
| 70–80% | 22 | 63.6% (14/22) | |
| 80–90% | 0 | — | |
| 90–101% | 0 | — |
Upcoming picks
| When | Match | This model picks | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| IW vs TSpirit | TSpirit 53% | 0.90 | |
| VSN vs BB | VSN 65% | 0.18 | |
| Liquid vs TY | TY 54% | 0.90 | |
| NGX vs FLCN | NGX 58% | 0.90 | |
| Resilience vs GL | Resilience 62% | 0.84 | |
| OG vs XG | OG 57% | 0.90 | |
| Nova Pulse vs LSG | Nova Pulse 55% | 0.90 | |
| Resilience vs GL | Resilience 62% | 0.84 | |
| OG vs XG | OG 57% | 0.90 |
Recent picks (60)
| When | Match | Pick | Outcome | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 17 | IW vs TSpirit | TSpirit 53% | pending | — |
| Aug 17 | VSN vs BB | VSN 65% | pending | — |
| Aug 17 | Liquid vs TY | TY 54% | pending | — |
| Aug 17 | NGX vs FLCN | NGX 58% | pending | — |
| Aug 17 | Resilience vs GL | Resilience 62% | pending | — |
| Aug 17 | OG vs XG | OG 57% | pending | — |
| Aug 17 | Nova Pulse vs LSG | Nova Pulse 55% | pending | — |
| Aug 17 | Resilience vs GL | Resilience 62% | pending | — |
| Aug 17 | OG vs XG | OG 57% | pending | — |
| Aug 17 | Vitality Wa… vs FLYING FORT… | Vitality Warriors 56% | pending | — |
| Aug 16 | LGD vs TY | TY 64% | TY | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 16 | LGD vs TY | TY 63% | TY | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 16 | TY vs LGD | TY 68% | TY | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 16 | TSpirit vs Resilience | TSpirit 52% | TSpirit | coin-flip |
| Aug 16 | IW vs GL | IW 54% | IW | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 16 | LGD vs TY | TY 64% | LGD | ✗ miss |
| Aug 16 | GL vs IW | GL 56% | IW | ✗ miss |
| Aug 16 | Resilience vs TSpirit | TSpirit 53% | TSpirit | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 16 | FLCN vs VG | FLCN 58% | FLCN | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 16 | Aurora vs BB | Aurora 54% | BB | ✗ miss |
| Aug 16 | GL vs IW | GL 59% | IW | ✗ miss |
| Aug 16 | Resilience vs TSpirit | TSpirit 56% | Resilience | ✗ miss |
| Aug 16 | Aurora vs BB | Aurora 54% | BB | ✗ miss |
| Aug 16 | TSpirit vs Resilience | TSpirit 61% | TSpirit | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 16 | FLCN vs VG | FLCN 56% | FLCN | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 16 | BB vs Aurora | BB 51% | BB | coin-flip |
| Aug 16 | VG vs FLCN | VG 53% | FLCN | ✗ miss |
| Aug 15 | TY vs IW | TY 72% | IW | ✗ miss |
| Aug 15 | Aurora vs Liquid | Aurora 54% | Liquid | ✗ miss |
| Aug 15 | NGX vs TSpirit | NGX 57% | NGX | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 15 | NGX vs TSpirit | NGX 55% | NGX | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 15 | Resilience vs GL | Resilience 60% | pending | — |
| Aug 15 | OG vs XG | OG 57% | pending | — |
| Aug 15 | FLCN vs BB | BB 51% | FLCN | coin-flip |
| Aug 15 | NGX vs TSpirit | NGX 55% | NGX | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 15 | Liquid vs Aurora | Liquid 55% | Aurora | ✗ miss |
| Aug 15 | IW vs TY | TY 69% | IW | ✗ miss |
| Aug 15 | Liquid vs Aurora | Liquid 59% | Aurora | ✗ miss |
| Aug 15 | FLCN vs BB | BB 51% | BB | coin-flip |
| Aug 15 | Aurora vs Liquid | Liquid 52% | Aurora | ✗ miss |
| Aug 15 | TY vs IW | TY 75% | IW | ✗ miss |
| Aug 15 | BB vs FLCN | BB 58% | FLCN | ✗ miss |
| Aug 15 | FLCN vs BB | BB 51% | FLCN | coin-flip |
| Aug 15 | LGD vs VG | VG 52% | LGD | ✗ miss |
| Aug 15 | XG vs Resilience | Resilience 51% | Resilience | coin-flip |
| Aug 15 | OG vs GL | OG 54% | GL | ✗ miss |
| Aug 15 | Resilience vs XG | Resilience 64% | Resilience | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 15 | VG vs LGD | VG 59% | LGD | ✗ miss |
| Aug 15 | GL vs OG | GL 53% | GL | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 15 | Resilience vs XG | Resilience 54% | Resilience | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 15 | Liquid vs IW | Liquid 68% | Liquid | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 15 | Aurora vs BB | BB 50% | Aurora | coin-flip |
| Aug 15 | VSN vs TSpirit | VSN 61% | VSN | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 15 | BB vs Aurora | BB 56% | Aurora | ✗ miss |
| Aug 15 | BB vs Aurora | BB 56% | Aurora | ✗ miss |
| Aug 15 | TSpirit vs VSN | VSN 54% | VSN | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 15 | BB vs Aurora | BB 59% | Aurora | ✗ miss |
| Aug 15 | Liquid vs IW | Liquid 71% | IW | ✗ miss |
| Aug 15 | VG vs NGX | VG 53% | NGX | ✗ miss |
| Aug 15 | FLCN vs GL | FLCN 56% | FLCN | ✓ HIT |