Elo HQ
High-confidence Elo: smaller K-factor, scale=2000 — slow learner.
All-time accuracy
59.4%
130 / 219 settled
Last 50
42.0%
sliding window
Last 10
60.0%
most recent
Brier score
0.242
lower = better (0.25 = coin flip)
Log-loss
0.677
lower = better
Simulated bankroll
If you'd staked $10 on every prediction at fair odds (1/probability, no bookie vig), your P&L would be +$486.02 across 312 bets. ROI = +15.58%.
Calibration by confidence
When the model says 80%, is it actually right 80% of the time? Well-calibrated models have accuracy that matches confidence range.
| Confidence range | Picks | Accuracy | Calibration |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50–60% | 214 | 59.3% (127/214) | |
| 60–70% | 5 | 60.0% (3/5) | |
| 70–80% | 0 | — | |
| 80–90% | 0 | — | |
| 90–101% | 0 | — |
Upcoming picks
| When | Match | This model picks | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| IW vs TSpirit | TSpirit 51% | 0.74 | |
| VSN vs BB | VSN 56% | 0.12 | |
| Liquid vs TY | TY 52% | 1.00 | |
| NGX vs FLCN | NGX 53% | 1.00 | |
| Resilience vs GL | Resilience 55% | 0.56 | |
| OG vs XG | OG 53% | 1.00 | |
| Nova Pulse vs LSG | Nova Pulse 52% | 1.00 | |
| Resilience vs GL | Resilience 55% | 0.56 | |
| OG vs XG | OG 53% | 1.00 |
Recent picks (60)
| When | Match | Pick | Outcome | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 17 | IW vs TSpirit | TSpirit 51% | pending | — |
| Aug 17 | VSN vs BB | VSN 56% | pending | — |
| Aug 17 | Liquid vs TY | TY 52% | pending | — |
| Aug 17 | NGX vs FLCN | NGX 53% | pending | — |
| Aug 17 | Resilience vs GL | Resilience 55% | pending | — |
| Aug 17 | OG vs XG | OG 53% | pending | — |
| Aug 17 | Nova Pulse vs LSG | Nova Pulse 52% | pending | — |
| Aug 17 | Resilience vs GL | Resilience 55% | pending | — |
| Aug 17 | OG vs XG | OG 53% | pending | — |
| Aug 17 | Vitality Wa… vs FLYING FORT… | Vitality Warriors 52% | pending | — |
| Aug 16 | LGD vs TY | TY 56% | TY | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 16 | LGD vs TY | TY 55% | TY | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 16 | TY vs LGD | TY 58% | TY | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 16 | TSpirit vs Resilience | TSpirit 51% | TSpirit | coin-flip |
| Aug 16 | IW vs GL | IW 52% | IW | coin-flip |
| Aug 16 | LGD vs TY | TY 56% | LGD | ✗ miss |
| Aug 16 | GL vs IW | GL 52% | IW | ✗ miss |
| Aug 16 | Resilience vs TSpirit | TSpirit 51% | TSpirit | coin-flip |
| Aug 16 | FLCN vs VG | FLCN 53% | FLCN | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 16 | Aurora vs BB | Aurora 52% | BB | coin-flip |
| Aug 16 | GL vs IW | GL 53% | IW | ✗ miss |
| Aug 16 | Resilience vs TSpirit | TSpirit 53% | Resilience | ✗ miss |
| Aug 16 | Aurora vs BB | Aurora 52% | BB | coin-flip |
| Aug 16 | TSpirit vs Resilience | TSpirit 54% | TSpirit | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 16 | FLCN vs VG | FLCN 53% | FLCN | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 16 | BB vs Aurora | BB 51% | BB | coin-flip |
| Aug 16 | VG vs FLCN | VG 51% | FLCN | coin-flip |
| Aug 15 | TY vs IW | TY 59% | IW | ✗ miss |
| Aug 15 | Aurora vs Liquid | Aurora 51% | Liquid | coin-flip |
| Aug 15 | NGX vs TSpirit | NGX 53% | NGX | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 15 | NGX vs TSpirit | NGX 52% | NGX | coin-flip |
| Aug 15 | Resilience vs GL | Resilience 54% | pending | — |
| Aug 15 | OG vs XG | OG 53% | pending | — |
| Aug 15 | FLCN vs BB | BB 50% | FLCN | coin-flip |
| Aug 15 | NGX vs TSpirit | NGX 52% | NGX | coin-flip |
| Aug 15 | Liquid vs Aurora | Liquid 52% | Aurora | ✗ miss |
| Aug 15 | IW vs TY | TY 58% | IW | ✗ miss |
| Aug 15 | Liquid vs Aurora | Liquid 54% | Aurora | ✗ miss |
| Aug 15 | FLCN vs BB | BB 50% | BB | coin-flip |
| Aug 15 | Aurora vs Liquid | Liquid 51% | Aurora | coin-flip |
| Aug 15 | TY vs IW | TY 61% | IW | ✗ miss |
| Aug 15 | BB vs FLCN | BB 53% | FLCN | ✗ miss |
| Aug 15 | FLCN vs BB | BB 50% | FLCN | coin-flip |
| Aug 15 | LGD vs VG | VG 51% | LGD | coin-flip |
| Aug 15 | XG vs Resilience | Resilience 50% | Resilience | coin-flip |
| Aug 15 | OG vs GL | OG 51% | GL | coin-flip |
| Aug 15 | Resilience vs XG | Resilience 56% | Resilience | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 15 | VG vs LGD | VG 54% | LGD | ✗ miss |
| Aug 15 | GL vs OG | GL 51% | GL | coin-flip |
| Aug 15 | Resilience vs XG | Resilience 52% | Resilience | coin-flip |
| Aug 15 | Liquid vs IW | Liquid 58% | Liquid | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 15 | Aurora vs BB | BB 50% | Aurora | coin-flip |
| Aug 15 | VSN vs TSpirit | VSN 54% | VSN | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 15 | BB vs Aurora | BB 52% | Aurora | ✗ miss |
| Aug 15 | BB vs Aurora | BB 52% | Aurora | ✗ miss |
| Aug 15 | TSpirit vs VSN | VSN 52% | VSN | coin-flip |
| Aug 15 | BB vs Aurora | BB 54% | Aurora | ✗ miss |
| Aug 15 | Liquid vs IW | Liquid 59% | IW | ✗ miss |
| Aug 15 | VG vs NGX | VG 51% | NGX | coin-flip |
| Aug 15 | FLCN vs GL | FLCN 52% | FLCN | ✓ HIT |